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AJPH First Look, published online ahead of print Jan 31, 2006
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American Journal of Public Health, 10.2105/AJPH.2005.062059

Analytic Essay Forum

System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities

Jack B. Homer 1* Gary B. Hirsch 2

1 Homer Consulting
2 Consultant, Creator of Learning Environments

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: jhomer{at}comcast.net.


  Abstract

The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is well suited to address the dynamic complexity that characterizes many public health issues. The system dynamics approach involves the development of computer simulation models that portray processes of accumulation and feedback and that may be tested systematically to find effective policies for overcoming policy resistance.

System dynamics modeling of chronic disease prevention should seek to incorporate all the basic elements of a modern ecological approach, including disease outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and healthrelated resources and delivery systems. System dynamics shows promise as a means of modeling multiple interacting diseases and risks, the interaction of delivery systems and diseased populations, and matters of national and state policy.

Key Words: Chronic Disease, Epidemiology, Health Policy, Health Service Delivery, Prevention




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