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Matthew C. Farrelly is with the Public Health and Environment Division and the Public Health Policy Research Program, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC, and the RTI-UNC Center of Excellence in Health Promotion Economics, Research Triangle Park. Mark Engelen is with the Public Health Policy Research Program, RTI International, Research Triangle Park.
Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Matthew C. Farrelly, 3040 Cornwallis Rd, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (e-mail: mcf@rti.org).
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We read the provocative article by Franks et al. with great interest, because it concludes that since the 1998 Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) between states and tobacco companies, there has been a "dramatic decline in the effect of cigarette pack prices on smoking participation in both lower- and higher-income individuals."1 We were impressed with the authors thoughtful analytic approach but remained skeptical because their results contradict a large body of previous research.
A meta-analysis examined 523 estimates of price effects and confirmed the conventional wisdom that a 10% increase in cigarette prices leads to a 4% decline in smoking.2 Half
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