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Andrew P. Jones, MS, Jack B. Homer, PhD, Dara L. Murphy, MPH, Joyce D. K. Essien, MD, MBA, Bobby Milstein, MPH and Donald A. Seville, MS

Dara L. Murphy is with the Division of Diabetes Translation, Joyce D. K. Essien is with the Division of Public Health Partnerships, and Bobby Milstein is with the Division of Adult and Community Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Ga. Joyce D. K. Essien is also with the Center for Public Health Practice at the Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta. Jack B. Homer is with Homer Consulting, Voorhees, NJ. Andrew P. Jones and Donald A. Seville are with the Sustainability Institute, Asheville, NC, and Hartland, VT, respectively.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Dara L. Murphy or Kimbelian Barnes, Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Mail Stop K-10, 4770 Buford Hwy, Atlanta, GA 30341 (e-mail: dlm1{at}cdc.gov; kbarnes1{at}cdc.gov).

Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050.

The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.

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