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FIGURE 2—— Selected baseline model output, 1980–2050, and comparison to historical data for obesity prevalence (a), diabetes prevalence (b), complication-related deaths per complicated cases (c), and complication-related deaths (d).

Note. Reported obesity prevalence based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey,¹⁵ and reported diabetes prevalence based on National Health Interview Survey.¹⁴ Baseline projection assumes that obesity prevalence rises to 37% in 2006 and remains fixed thereafter, and that disease detection and control efforts all remain fixed after 2004.

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