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AJPH First Look, published online ahead of print Jan 31, 2006
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Learning from Evidence in a Complex World

John D. Sterman, PhD

The author is with the MIT Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, Mass.


Figure 1
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  		FIGURE 1—— Sources of policy resistance.

Note. Arrows indicate causation, e.g., our actions alter the environment. Thin arrows show the basic feedback loop through which we seek to bring the state of the system in line with our goals. Policy resistance (thick arrows) arises when we fail to account for the so called "side effects" of our actions, the responses of other agents in the system (and the unanticipated consequences of these), the ways in which experience shapes our goals, and the time delays often present in these feedbacks.

 

Figure 2
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  		FIGURE 2—— Learning is a feedback process.

Note. The diagram shows the main impediments to learning. Arrows indicate causation.

 

Figure 3
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  		FIGURE 3—— Idealized learning process.

Note. Simulations create virtual worlds to speed and improve the generation of evidence. To be effective, inquiry skills for the interpretation of evidence must also improve. Arrows indicate causation.

 




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