AJPH
HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH TABLE OF CONTENTS
QUICK SEARCH:   [advanced]


     

AJPH First Look, published online ahead of print Jan 31, 2006
This Article
Right arrow Abstract Freely available
Right arrow Full Text
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Submit a response
Right arrow Purchase Article
Right arrow View Shopping Cart
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me when eLetters are posted
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in ISI Web of Science
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrow reprints & permissions
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via HighWire
Right arrow Citing Articles via ISI Web of Science (14)
Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Homer, J. B.
Right arrow Articles by Hirsch, G. B.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Homer, J. B.
Right arrow Articles by Hirsch, G. B.
Related Collections
Right arrow Other Chronic Disease
Right arrow Epidemiology
Right arrow Health Policy
Right arrow Other Health Service Delivery
Right arrow Prevention
System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities

Jack B. Homer, PhD and Gary B. Hirsch, SM

Jack Homer and Gary Hirsch are independent consultants specializing in the application of system dynamics methodology in both the public and the private spheres.


Figure 1
View larger version (23K):

[in a new window]
  		FIGURE 1—— A simple model of chronic disease prevention.

Note. The rectangle represents a stock of people; thick arrows with valves and cloud symbols represent flows of people; thinner arrows indicate causal influence; arrows with minus signs indicate inverse causal influence.

 

Figure 2
View larger version (16K):

[in a new window]
  		FIGURE 2—— Chronic disease prevention model output for 3 scenarios over 50 simulated years, showing onset prevention fraction (a), complications prevention fraction (b), people with disease (c), and deaths from complications (d).

 

Figure 3
View larger version (19K):

[in a new window]
  		FIGURE 3—— A broad view of population health and the spectrum of possible responses.

Note. Rectangles represent the stocks of people; thick arrows with circles represent flows of people; thinner arrows indicate causal influence; rounded rectangles indicate multidimensional concepts.

 

Figure 4
View larger version (28K):

[in a new window]
  		FIGURE 4—— Overview of the health care microworld.

Source. Adapted from Hirsch and Immediato.61

Note. Episodes of illness in the bottom half of the diagram determine demand for care in the top half of the diagram. Rectangles in the bottom half represent stocks of ill patients. Rectangles in the top half represent stocks of provider capacity and workload. Arrows represent causal influences.

 




HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH TABLE OF CONTENTS
Copyright © 2006 by the American Public Health Association