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AJPH First Look, published online ahead of print Oct 3, 2006
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Agent-Based Modeling of Drinking Behavior: A Preliminary Model and Potential Applications to Theory and Practice

Dennis M. Gorman, PhD, Jadranka Mezic, MS, Igor Mezic, PhD and Paul J. Gruenewald, PhD

Dennis M. Gorman is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Rural Public Health, Texas A&M Health Science Center, College Station. Jadranka Mezic is with Aimdyn, Inc, Santa Barbara, Calif. Igor Mezic is with the Department of Mechanical and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Santa Barbara. Paul J. Gruenewald is with the Prevention Research Center, Berkeley, Calif.


Figure 1
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  		FIGURE 1—— Rules governing interaction and movement of susceptible nondrinkers (S), current drinkers (D), and former drinkers (R).

Note. Susceptibles (S): each agent examines the site it is residing on, counts current drinkers d(i), and converts to being a drinker with probability d(i)/s(i) + r(i) + d(i)+ d(i)/t(i) where t(i) = s(i)+ r(i)+ d(i) is the total number of individuals at site i. Current drinkers (D):each agent examines its site, counts former drinkers r(i), and converts to nondrinker status with probability r(i)/t(i) + {gamma}, where {gamma} is a bias defined as a probability that a drinker would stop drinking even if there were no former drinkers at this site (e.g., as a result of broader socioenvironmental influences such as the price of alcohol). Former drinkers (R): each agent examines its site, counts current drinkers, and converts to a current drinker with probability d(i)/t(i) + {rho}, where {rho} is a bias defined as the probability that former drinkers would resume drinking even if there were no drinkers around (e.g., with relapse caused by genetic predisposition).

 

Figure 2
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  		FIGURE 2—— Evolution of the fraction of the population composed of those susceptible to becoming drinkers (a), those that are current drinkers (b), and those that are former drinkers (model parameters: p = .1, {square}= .3, {square}= .3) (c).

 

Figure 3
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  		FIGURE 3—— Effects of agent motion on susceptibility: evolution of the fraction of the population that is susceptible with model parameters set at p = .5, {square}= .3, {square}= .3 (a); model parameters set at p = .01, {square}= .3, {square}= .3 (b); and model parameters set at p = .2, {square}= .3, {square} = .3 (c).

 

Figure 4
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  		FIGURE 4—— Effects of introducing a bar into the agent environment: population of drinking agents clustering around bar.

 

Figure 5
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  		FIGURE 5—— Effects of introducing a bar into the agent environment: evolution of the fraction of the population that is susceptible (model parameters: p= .3, {square} = .3, {square} = .3

 




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