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This Article Figures Only Full Text Full Text (PDF) All Versions of this Article: AJPH.2006.100081v1 97/Supplement_1/S158    most recent Submit a response View Shopping Cart Alert me when this article is cited Alert me when eLetters are posted Alert me if a correction is posted Services Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Kaiser, R. Articles by Rubin, C. H. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Kaiser, R. Articles by Rubin, C. H.

Reinhard Kaiser, MD, MPH, Alain Le Tertre, PhD, Joel Schwartz, PhD, Carol A. Gotway, PhD, W. Randolph Daley, DVM, MPH and Carol H. Rubin, DVM, MPH

At the time of the study, Reinhard Kaiser, Carol A. Gotway, W. Randolph Daley, and Carol H. Rubin were with the Division for Emergency and Environmental Health Services, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Ga. Alain Le Tertre is with the Information and Statistics Unit, Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health Surveillance, Saint Maurice, France. Joel Schwartz is with the Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Mass.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Reinhard Kaiser, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Kenya, PO Box 606-00621, Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya (e-mail: rkaiser{at}ke.cdc.gov).

Objectives. We sought to reexamine the effects of the 1995 Chicago heat wave on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including mortality displacement, using advanced time-series analysis methods.

Methods. We used Poisson regression with penalized regression splines to model excess mortality and mortality displacement over a 50-day period centered on the day in which the heat wave temperature peaked, adjusting for meteorological and other variables. We controlled for temporal trends by using daily mortality data during 1993–1997. We estimated relative risks (RRs) with reference to the first day of the 50-day period.

Results. We estimated that there were 692 excess deaths from June 21, 1995, to August 10, 1995; 26% of these deaths were owing to mortality displacement. RR for all-cause mortality on the day with peak mortality was 1.74 (95% confidence interval=1.67, 1.81). Risk of heat-related death was significantly higher among Blacks, and mortality displacement was substantially lower.

Conclusions. The 1995 Chicago heat wave substantially effected all-cause and cause-specific mortality, but mortality displacement was limited. Mortality risks and displacement affected Blacks disproportionally. Appropriately targeted interventions may have a tangible effect on life expectancy.