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Kim Knowlton, DrPH, Barry Lynn, PhD, Richard A. Goldberg, MS, Cynthia Rosenzweig, PhD, Christian Hogrefe, PhD, Joyce Klein Rosenthal, MSUP, MPH and Patrick L. Kinney, ScD

At the time the research was completed, Kim Knowlton and Patrick L. Kinney were with the Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY. Barry Lynn, Richard A. Goldberg, and Cynthia Rosenzweig were with the Center for Climate Systems Research, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York. Christian Hogrefe was with the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, Albany, NY. Joyce Klein Rosenthal was with the Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, and the Graduate School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, Columbia University, New York.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Kim Knowlton, DrPH, Science Fellow on Global Warming and Health, Natural Resources Defense Council, 40 West 20th St, New York, NY 10011 (e-mail: kknowlton{at}nrdc.org).

Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region.

Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation).

Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties.

Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality.

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