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AJPH First Look, published online ahead of print Jan 31, 2006
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March 2006, Vol 96, No. 3 | American Journal of Public Health 494-498
© 2006 American Public Health Association
DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2005.063974

OPPORTUNITIES AND DEMANDS IN PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEMS

Simulation Modeling and Tobacco Control: Creating More Robust Public Health Policies

David T. Levy, PhD, Joseph E. Bauer, PhD and Hye-ryeon Lee, PhD

David T. Levy is with the Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation of Calverton, Md, and the University of Baltimore, Baltimore, Md. Joseph E. Bauer is with the Roswell Park Cancer Institute of Buffalo, NY. Hye-ryeon Lee is with the Department of Speech at the University of Hawaii, Manoa.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to David T. Levy, PhD, 11710 Beltsville Drive, Suite 300, Calverton, MD 20705 (e-mail: levy @pire.org).

Although previous empirical studies have shown that tobacco control policies are effective at reducing smoking rates, such studies have proven of limited effectiveness in distinguishing how the effect of policies depend on the other policies in place, the length of adjustment period, the way the policy is implemented, and the demographic groups considered.

An alternative and complementary approach to purely statistical equations is simulation models. We describe the SimSmoke simulation model and how we used it to assess tobacco control policy in a specific case study. Simulation models are not only useful for policy prediction and planning but also may help to broaden our understanding of the role of different public health policies within a complex, dynamic social system.




This article has been cited by other articles:


Home page
 Tobacco ControlHome page
D T Levy, S Benjakul, H Ross, and B Ritthiphakdee
The role of tobacco control policies in reducing smoking and deaths in a middle income nation: results from the Thailand SimSmoke simulation model
Tob. Control, January 1, 2008; 17(1): 53 - 59.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


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