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AJPH First Look, published online ahead of print Jan 31, 2006
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March 2006, Vol 96, No. 3 | American Journal of Public Health 452-458
© 2006 American Public Health Association
DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2005.062059

OPPORTUNITIES AND DEMANDS IN PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEMS

System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities

Jack B. Homer, PhD and Gary B. Hirsch, SM

Jack Homer and Gary Hirsch are independent consultants specializing in the application of system dynamics methodology in both the public and the private spheres.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Jack Homer, 3618 Avalon Court, Voorhees, NJ 08043 (e-mail: jhomer{at}comcast.net).

The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is well suited to address the dynamic complexity that characterizes many public health issues. The system dynamics approach involves the development of computer simulation models that portray processes of accumulation and feedback and that may be tested systematically to find effective policies for overcoming policy resistance.

System dynamics modeling of chronic disease prevention should seek to incorporate all the basic elements of a modern ecological approach, including disease outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and health-related resources and delivery systems. System dynamics shows promise as a means of modeling multiple interacting diseases and risks, the interaction of delivery systems and diseased populations, and matters of national and state policy.




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