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Daniel Eisenberg, PhD and Kenneth E. Warner, PhD

At the time of this study, Daniel Eisenberg was with the University of California Berkeley School of Public Health. Kenneth E. Warner is with the Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Daniel Eisenberg, PhD, Department of Health Management and Policy, M3517 SPH II, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029 (e-mail: daneis{at}umich.edu).

Objectives. We estimated the effects of snowfalls on US traffic crash rates between 1975 and 2000.

Methods. We linked all recorded fatal crashes (1.4 million) for the 48 contiguous states from 1975 through 2000 to daily state weather data. For a subsample including 17 states during the 1990s, we also linked all recorded property-damage-only crashes (22.9 million) and nonfatal-injury crashes (13.5 million) to daily weather data. Employing negative binomial regressions, we investigated the effects of snowfall on crash counts. Fixed effects and other controls were included to address potential confounders.

Results. Snow days had fewer fatal crashes than dry days (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.90, 0.97), but more nonfatal-injury crashes (IRR = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.18, 1.29) and property-damage-only crashes (IRR=1.45; 95% CI=1.38, 1.52). The first snowy day of the year was substantially more dangerous than other snow days in terms of fatalities (IRR = 1.14; 95% CI=1.08, 1.21), particularly for elderly drivers (IRR=1.34; 95% CI=1.23, 1.50).

Conclusions. The toll of snow-related crashes is substantial. Our results may help estimate the potential benefits of safety innovations currently proposed by meteorology and traffic safety experts.