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Paul D. Mowery, MA, Matthew C. Farrelly, PhD, M. Lyndon Haviland, DrPH, Julia M. Gable, MS and Henry E. Wells, MS

Paul D. Mowery, Matthew C. Farrelly, Julia M. Gable, and Henry E. Wells are with RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC. M. Lyndon Haviland is with the American Legacy Foundation, Washington, DC.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints to Paul D. Mowery, MA, RTI International, 2951 Flowers Rd, Suite 119, Atlanta, GA 30341–5533 (e-mail: pdm{at}rti.org).

Objectives. Our study presents national estimates of the proportion of youths in each of 7 stages of smoking and investigates the associations between risk/protective factors and progression to established smoking.

Methods. We analyzed data from the 1999 and 2000 National Youth Tobacco Surveys.

Results. In 1999 and 2000, 48.6% of US adolescents had at least experimented with tobacco, and 7.8% were established smokers. Important correlates of progression to established smoking included parental advice not to smoke, antismoking lessons in school, susceptibility to tobacco industry advertising and promotion, peer smoking, and exposure to smoking at home.

Conclusions. Interventions to stop adolescent progression to established smoking should target susceptible never smokers and early experimenters as well as those in later stages of smoking.

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