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David Mendez, PhD and Kenneth E. Warner, PhD

David Mendez and Kenneth E. Warner are with the Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to David Mendez, PhD, M3232 SPH II, 109 S Observatory St, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2029 (e-mail: dmendez{at}umich.edu).

We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995–2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 = .89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.

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