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December 2002, Vol 92, No. 12 | American Journal of Public Health 1982-1987
© 2002 American Public Health Association

RESEARCH AND PRACTICE

Childhood Vaccine Purchase Costs in the Public Sector: Past Trends, Future Expectations

Matthew M. Davis, MD, MAPP, Jessica L. Zimmerman, BA, John R. C. Wheeler, PhD and Gary L. Freed, MD, MPH

All of the authors are with the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Matthew M. Davis is with the Child Health Evaluation and Research (CHEAR) Unit, Division of General Pediatrics, and the Division of General Internal Medicine. Jessica L. Zimmerman is with the CHEAR Unit. John R. C. Wheeler is with the Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health. Gary L. Freed is with the CHEAR Unit and the Department of Health Management and Policy.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Matthew M. Davis, MD, MAPP, Division of General Pediatrics, University of Michigan, 300 North Ingalls Building, Room 6C23, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0456 (e-mail: mattdav{at}umich.edu).

Objectives. We examined recent public-sector trends in childhood vaccine costs and estimated future costs.

Methods. We used public-sector price data to calculate vaccine purchase cost per child for children aged 0 to 6 years from 1975 to 2001. We fit a linear regression model to historical data and then used it to project costs per child from 2002 to 2020, adjusted to 2001 US dollars.

Results. Controlling for inflation, the cost of vaccine purchase per child climbed from $10 in 1975 to $385 in 2001. The cost of vaccine purchase in the year 2020 following recommendation of 7 additional vaccines is estimated to be $1225 per child (95% confidence interval = $891, $1559).

Conclusions. The cost per child for recommended vaccines at public-sector prices may triple over the next 2 decades. These projections have implications for vaccine financing at federal and state levels.




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