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Jonathan P. Caulkins, PhD

The author is with Carnegie Mellon University, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Pittsburgh, Pa, and RAND, Pittsburgh, Pa.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Diane Schoeff, RAND Drug Policy Research Center, PO Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (e-mail: caulkins{at}rand.orgordschoeff{at}rand.org).

Objectives. In this report, the author illustrates the historic relation between retail drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin.

Methods. Price series based on the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence database were correlated with data on emergency department mentions from the Drug Abuse Warning Network for cocaine (1978–1996) and heroin (1981–1996).

Results. A simple model in which emergency department mentions are driven by only prices explains more than 95% of the variation in emergency department mentions.

Conclusions. Fluctuations in prices are an important determinant of adverse health outcomes associated with drugs.

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