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Kristie L. Ebi, PhD, MPH, K. Alex Exuzides, PhD, Edmund Lau, Michael Kelsh, PhD and Anthony Barnston

Kristie L. Ebi is with EPRI, Palo Alto, Calif. K. Alex Exuzides, Edmund Lau, and Michael Kelsh are with the Exponent Health Group, Menlo Park, Calif. Anthony Barnston is with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Kristie L. Ebi, PhD, MPH, EPRI, 3412 Hillview Ave, Palo Alto, CA 94304 (e-mail: krisebi{at}epri.com).

Objectives. This study examined associations between weather and hospitalizations of females for viral pneumonia during normal weather periods and El Niño events in the California counties of Sacramento and Yolo, San Francisco and San Mateo, and Los Angeles and Orange.

Methods. Associations between weather and hospitalizations (lagged 7 days) for January 1983 through June 1998 were evaluated with Poisson regression models. Generalized estimating equations were used to adjust for autocorrelation and overdispersion. Data were summed over 4 days.

Results. Associations varied by region. Hospitalizations in San Francisco and Los Angeles increased significantly (30%–50%) with a 5°F decrease in minimum temperature. Hospitalizations in Sacramento increased significantly (25%–40%) with a 5°F decrease in maximum temperature difference. The associations were independent of season. El Niño events were associated with hospitalizations only in Sacramento, with significant decreases for girls and increases for women.

Conclusions. The results suggest that viral pneumonia could continue to be a major public health issue, with a significant association between weather and hospitalizations, even as the global mean temperature continues to rise. An understanding of population sensitivity under different weather conditions could lead to an improved understanding of virus transmission.

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