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Tuberculosis and the HIV epidemic: increasing annual risk of tuberculous infection in Kenya, 1986-1996.

J A Odhiambo, M W Borgdorff, F M Kiambih, D K Kibuga, D O Kwamanga, L Ng'ang'a, R Agwanda, N A Kalisvaart, O Misljenovic, N J Nagelkerke and M Bosman

Kenya Medical Research Institute, Respiratory Diseases Research Unit, Nairobi.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the increased incidence of tuberculosis (TB) due to HIV infection on the risk of TB infection in schoolchildren. METHODS: Tuberculin surveys were carried out in randomly selected primary schools in 12 districts in Kenya during 1986 through 1990 and 1994 through 1996. Districts were grouped according to the year in which TB notification rates started to increase. HIV prevalence in TB patients and changes in TB infection prevalence were compared between districts. RESULTS: Tuberculous infection prevalence rates increased strongly in districts where TB notification rates had increased before 1994 (odds ratio = 3.1, 95% confidence interval = 2.3, 4.1) but did not increase in districts where notification rates had increased more recently or not at all. HIV prevalence rates in TB patients were 50% in districts with an early increase in notification rates and 28% in the other study districts. CONCLUSIONS: Countries with an increasing prevalence of HIV infection will need additional resources for TB control, not only for current patients but also for the patients in additional cases arising from the increased risk of TB infection.

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