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Evaluating cluster alarms: a space-time scan statistic and brain cancer in Los Alamos, New Mexico.

M Kulldorff, W F Athas, E J Feurer, B A Miller and C R Key

Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Md 20892-7368, USA.

OBJECTIVES: This article presents a space-time scan statistic, useful for evaluating space-time cluster alarms, and illustrates the method on a recent brain cancer cluster alarms in Los Alamos, NM. METHODS: The space-time scan statistic accounts for the preselection bias and multiple testing inherent in a cluster alarm. Confounders and time trends can be adjusted for. RESULTS: The observed excess of brain cancer in Los Alamos was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The space-time scan statistic is useful as a screening tool for evaluating which cluster alarms merit further investigation and which clusters are probably chance occurrences.

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