HOME HELP FEEDBACK SUBSCRIPTIONS ARCHIVE SEARCH TABLE OF CONTENTS		QUICK SEARCH:   [advanced] Author: Keyword(s): Year:  Vol:  Page:

This Article Full Text (PDF) Submit a response Purchase Article View Shopping Cart Alert me when this article is cited Alert me when eLetters are posted Alert me if a correction is posted Services Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Russell, L B Articles by Jagannathan, R Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Russell, L B Articles by Jagannathan, R

Modeling all-cause mortality: projections of the impact of smoking cessation based on the NHEFS. NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study.

L B Russell, J L Carson, W C Taylor, E Milan, A Dey and R Jagannathan

Institute for Health, Health Care Policy, and Aging Research, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.

OBJECTIVES: A model that relates clinical risk factors to subsequent mortality was used to simulate the impact of smoking cessation. METHODS: Survivor functions derived from multivariate hazard regressions fitted to data from the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) Epidemiologic Followup Study, a longitudinal survey of a representative sample of US adults, were used to project deaths from all causes. RESULTS: Validation tests showed that the hazard regressions agreed with the risk relationships reported by others, that projected deaths for baseline risk factors closely matched observed mortality, and that the projections attributed deaths to the appropriate levels of important risk factors. Projections of the impact of smoking cessation showed that the number of cumulative deaths would be 15% lower after 5 years and 11% lower after 20 years. CONCLUSIONS: The model produced realistic projections of the effects of risk factor modification on subsequent mortality in adults, Comparison of the projections for smoking cessation with estimates of the risk attributable to smoking published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that cessation could capture most of the benefit possible from eliminating smoking.

This article has been cited by other articles:

				P. M. McMahon, A. M. Zaslavsky, M. C. Weinstein, K. M. Kuntz, J. C. Weeks, and G. S. Gazelle Estimation of mortality rates for disease simulation models using bayesian evidence synthesis. Med Decis Making, September 1, 2006; 26(5): 497 - 511. [Abstract] [PDF]

				L. B. Russell, E. Valiyeva, S. H. Roman, L. M. Pogach, D.-C. Suh, and M. M. Safford Hospitalizations, Nursing Home Admissions, and Deaths Attributable to Diabetes Diabetes Care, July 1, 2005; 28(7): 1611 - 1617. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				L. B. Russell, E. Valiyeva, and J. L. Carson Effects of Prehypertension on Admissions and Deaths: A Simulation Arch Intern Med, October 25, 2004; 164(19): 2119 - 2124. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				H. D. Sesso, R. S. Chen, G. J. L'Italien, P. Lapuerta, W. C. Lee, and R. J. Glynn Blood Pressure Lowering and Life Expectancy Based on a Markov Model of Cardiovascular Events Hypertension, November 1, 2003; 42(5): 885 - 890. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				L. Goldman, K. A. Phillips, P. Coxson, P. A. Goldman, L. Williams, M. G. M. Hunink, and M. C. Weinstein The effect of risk factor reductions between 1981 and 1990 on coronary heart disease incidence, prevalence, mortality and cost J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., October 1, 2001; 38(4): 1012 - 1017. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]