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A regression analysis estimating the number of drug-using arrestees in 185 US cities.

Y I Hser, M Prendergast, M D Anglin, J K Chen and S C Hsieh

Drug Abuse Research Center, University of California, Los Angeles 90024-3511, USA.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to provide population-based estimates of drug-using arrestees in the 185 largest US cities. METHODS: A prevalence model for drug-using arrestees was developed by relating selected social indicators (from 1990 census data) and drug use rates (from Drug Use Forecasting program data) via logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: It was estimated that in 1990, across the 185 cities, about 925,000 arrestees used cocaine, 317,000 used opiates, 213,000 used amphetamines, 389,000 were drug injectors, and 1,296,000 used an illicit drug. CONCLUSIONS: This approach represents a cost-efficient method for prevalence estimation based on empirically demonstrable relationships between social indicators and drug use rates.