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Bleach programs for preventing AIDS among i.v. drug users: modeling the impact of HIV prevalence.

J E Siegel, M C Weinstein and H V Fineberg

Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115.

BACKGROUND. The growing importance of drug use as a mode of HIV transmission has led to increased attention to AIDS prevention among intravenous drug users (IVDUs). This analysis examines the effectiveness of bleach distribution, a program to prevent HIV transmission via shared needles. METHODS. We used a Markov model to assess the role of the initial HIV prevalence among drug users in determining the effectiveness of bleach programs. The model incorporates survey data on risk behaviors and published information describing HIV incubation and mortality. It predicts life expectancy for cohorts of IVDUs with and without a bleach program to estimate program effectiveness. RESULTS. We found that bleach programs can produce the greatest life-year savings in areas of low HIV prevalence. In the lowest prevalence scenario (0.02 initial prevalence), initiation of the program resulted in a projected savings of 2.3 life years per HIV-negative drug user, compared with 1.7 and 1.3 years under medium (0.25) and high (0.60) prevalence, respectively. CONCLUSIONS. While bleach programs are beneficial in all groups of IVDUs, these results highlight the advantages of introducing bleach programs early, when prevalence is still comparatively low in a drug-user population.

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